Rebel forces are polities that use armed conflict in opposition to established governments, whether national or transnational. They are characterized by the ability to hold some populated city, town, village, hamlet, or defined area that is subject to their control. They can exercise administrative and military authority over this domain, although such control may be contested or fluctuate under the circumstances of conflict.
Rebels’ choices between coercion or service provision to ensure civilian compliance with their rule can be influenced by several key factors, including the degree of ideology and pragmatism, aspirations to engage in political negotiations, and territorial control. Moreover, the quantity and quality of rebel arms influences the manner in which they attack. When resources are plentiful, insurgents can recruit more fighters and equip them more quickly, and conduct direct attacks over shorter timeframes. In contrast, when resources are scarce, they are likely to employ more indirect and sporadic attacks.
In Syria, where more than half a million people have been killed and 7m have fled the country as refugees, rebels are increasingly positioned to advance southward toward Damascus. However, they face significant logistical and governance challenges. Meanwhile, in the north, a loose coalition of FSA-identified groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has emerged as a major force in the largely rural Idlib province. The group’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has been trying to soften the group’s image and distance itself from Islamic State and al-Qaeda, promising to protect minority communities.